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What America Is Buying · Retail

Dunkin' Peaks at 9 A.M. Starbucks Peaks at Noon. What Does That Say About Their Customers?

Phone and card data show Dunkin' as a quick weekday morning stop and Starbucks as a busier, later, more weekend-heavy one. A payment app complicates the comparison.

Analysis: Python, pandas, DuckDB · Visualization: D3.js · Methods: hourly/weekday pattern comparison, payment-channel reconciliation (card vs. app reload), event study of rival openings with placebo tests
Dunkin's busiest hour
9 a.m.
Starbucks peaks at noon
Early-morning traffic rank
Top 4%
of 1,720 chains; 31.8% of visits fall 5–10 a.m.
Also buy at the other chain
1 in 3
of Dunkin's card customers shop Starbucks too
For the business: Dunkin' and Starbucks aren't really fighting over the same daypart. One owns the pre-work window, the other owns midday and evening, and about a third of customers already use both.

Dunkin' is busiest at 9 a.m. Starbucks is busiest at noon. That is the clearest difference between the two coffee chains in phone-location estimates for the year through July 2026.

Much else lines up with it. Dunkin' gets more of its visits on weekdays, its visits are shorter, and its card customers buy more often and spend less each time. Starbucks gets a larger share of its visits at the weekend and more of them after 5 p.m. The pattern fits a familiar split: Dunkin' as the cheaper weekday coffee on the way to work, Starbucks as more of a treat people make time for at the weekend. The data fit that pattern. They cannot show why people choose one or the other.

The two chains draw overlapping crowds. A third of Dunkin's card customers also buy at Starbucks in the same month, and the demographic profiles of their spending are close. Spending comparisons need care, because Starbucks customers pay a large share through prepaid cards and the Starbucks app.

When they go

Among 1,720 chains with at least 100 locations in the data, Dunkin' ranks in the top 4% for how much of its traffic falls in the early morning: 31.8% of its visits come between 5 and 10 a.m. Starbucks, at 19.8%, sits almost exactly at the median chain's 19.4%. Starbucks draws more of its visits later in the day: 23.7% come after 5 p.m., against 17.5% at Dunkin'.

Dunkin' peaks at 9 a.m.; Starbucks peaks at noon

Share of each chain's visits in each hour of the day (local time, all seven days), August 2025 to July 2026. Gray lines are the 300 largest chains. The shaded band is 5 a.m. to 10 a.m.

Source: Advan Weekly Patterns, one sampled week per month. A visit counts in every hour it overlaps, so these are shapes of the day, not visit counts.

Only 59 chains lean harder into the morning than Dunkin'. Tim Hortons is one of them, at 36.0%. Starbucks sits in the middle of the pack, next to Chick-fil-A and Panera.

Among 1,720 chains, Dunkin' is in the top 4% for early-morning traffic

Share of visits between 5 a.m. and 10 a.m., every chain with at least 100 stores, August 2025 to July 2026. Gray bars count chains; the dashed line is the median chain.

Source: Advan Weekly Patterns, sampled weeks, 2023 methodology era.

Starbucks leans more on the weekend. Of its visits, 31.4% fall on a Saturday or Sunday, against 29.9% at Dunkin'. Saturday is the busiest day for both, bringing 17.0% of Starbucks visits and 15.9% of Dunkin's. Starbucks has the higher Saturday share in all 42 states where both chains have at least five stores, and the higher weekend share in 40 of them. Dunkin' gets 70.1% of its visits from Monday to Friday, against 68.6% at Starbucks.

That fits Dunkin' as the cheaper weekday routine, a coffee before work, and Starbucks as more of a weekend treat. The gap is small, and visit timing alone can't show why people go. The lower Dunkin' transaction and its more frequent purchases, further down, point the same way.

Starbucks leans on the weekend; Dunkin' on the workweek

Share of each chain's visits on each day of the week, August 2025 to July 2026. Gray bars are all U.S. places.

Source: Advan Weekly Patterns daily visit counts.

Dunkin' visits are also shorter. Of its visits, 87% last under five minutes, against 77% at Starbucks and 74% at all U.S. places. Only 5.3% of Dunkin' visits last 21 minutes or more, about half the Starbucks share of 10.0%. The gap holds within 41 of 42 states. Very short visits include drive-through stops and people passing by, so the comparison between the chains is more reliable than the levels.

Most Dunkin' visits are over in under five minutes

Share of visits by how long they last, August 2025 to July 2026, for each chain and for all U.S. places.

Source: Advan Weekly Patterns dwell-time buckets, 2023 methodology era.

How often they buy and what they spend

In store-level card data, a Dunkin' customer made 2.21 card purchases a month at the same store, against 1.67 at Starbucks. The average Dunkin' transaction was smaller, $9.22 against $12.47. Monthly card spending per customer ends up nearly equal: $20.35 at Dunkin' and $20.78 at Starbucks. An average transaction is not the price of a coffee, and card purchases do not count every café visit.

Regulars make the difference. At Dunkin', 9% of customers buy five or more times a month at one store, against 5% at Starbucks.

Dunkin' customers make more card purchases and spend less each time

Card purchases per customer per month at the same store (vertical) against average card transaction (horizontal, log scale), every brand with at least 100 stores in the card panel, October 2024 to September 2025.

Source: SafeGraph Spend Patterns (card panel). Months after September 2025 are not used because of a change in the panel.

The gap is not a Northeast effect. Dunkin' customers made more card purchases in 38 of 42 states. Matched state by state, they make 1.33 times as many monthly purchases as Starbucks customers, about the same as the national ratio of 1.32. California is the clearest exception. Dunkin's average transaction is lower in 41 of the 42 states, at about 79% of the Starbucks figure. Hawaii is the exception.

In 38 of 42 states, Dunkin' customers make more card purchases than Starbucks customers

Card purchases per customer per month at the same store, by state: Starbucks (horizontal) against Dunkin' (vertical), October 2024 to September 2025. Each dot is a state, orange where Dunkin' is higher and green where Starbucks is. Dashed line: equal.

Source: SafeGraph Spend Patterns. States with at least 5 stores of each chain. The same-state ratio is the mean log ratio across states, weighted by both chains' customers.

How Starbucks customers pay

Starbucks card data need careful reading. Over the latest year, cardholders in ConsumerEdge's panel paid $748 million into Starbucks cards and apps, more than the $682 million recorded as direct café purchases. About 2.2 million panel cardholders made a reload. A reload is a payment to Starbucks, not a café visit, and purchases made later from that balance do not appear as new charges on a bank card.

Direct café card purchases alone make the two chains look alike. A Dunkin' cardholder made 11.0 purchases in the year at $10.56 each, $116 in all. A Starbucks café cardholder made 8.7 at $13.21, $115 in all. That comparison leaves out a major Starbucks payment channel, so it cannot show that the typical customer spends the same total at each.

Direct café card spending looks similar, but Starbucks reloads change the comparison

Card purchases per shopper in the 12 months to Aug. 9, 2026, coffee and breakfast chains, with the average purchase and yearly total. Starbucks counts direct café card purchases only; card and app reloads are not included.

Source: ConsumerEdge card panel. Starbucks café purchases are the STARBUCKS (MERCHANT) line; reloads are not café visits.

Reloads also change the trend. Counting café purchases plus reloads, Dunkin' takes about 0.13% of tracked card spending and Starbucks about 0.47%, and Dunkin's spending has stayed at about 0.28 times Starbucks' every year since 2021. Counting café purchases alone, Dunkin' appears to gain ground, from 0.56 of Starbucks in 2022 to 0.60 in 2026. That is because reloads grew from 49% to 53% of Starbucks card spending over the period.

Counting reloads, Dunkin's spending has held steady against Starbucks since 2021

Share of all tracked card spending, monthly, May 2021 to July 2026. Solid green is Starbucks café purchases plus card and app reloads; dashed green is café purchases only. Gray lines are other coffee and breakfast chains.

Source: ConsumerEdge card panel. Shares cancel changes in panel size.

Traffic and seasons

An average Starbucks is about twice as busy as an average Dunkin'. It receives an estimated 3,360 visits a week, against 1,600 at Dunkin'. Starbucks also has more stores in the data, 17,360 against 9,550. Both sit well below McDonald's (4,720) and Chick-fil-A (6,260).

Dunkin's stores are concentrated in the Northeast, so the chains were also compared inside each state. The gap barely moves: a Dunkin' gets 55% of a Starbucks' weekly visits in the same state, against 48% nationally. Starbucks is busier in 41 of 42 states. Hawaii is the only state where an average Dunkin' is busier.

A Starbucks gets twice the visits of a Dunkin', and the gap holds in 41 of 42 states

Estimated visits per store per week, August 2025 to July 2026, coffee and breakfast chains.

Source: Advan Weekly Patterns (phone-based visit estimates), U.S. stores, 2023 methodology era. Levels depend on the phone panel; the ratio between chains is the finding. Same-state figure: 42 states with at least 5 stores of each chain.

Store traffic has grown faster at Starbucks. Over the last 12 months, visits per store rose 2.8% from a year earlier at Starbucks and 0.7% at Dunkin'. In July 2026, same-store traffic was up 4.4% at Starbucks and 1.8% at Dunkin'. Card spending grew at about the same pace at both, 1.9% in the latest year.

Store traffic has grown faster at Starbucks over the past year

Estimated visits per store per week, monthly, January 2023 to July 2026. Gray lines are other coffee and breakfast chains.

Source: Advan Weekly Patterns, 2023 methodology era only. Year-on-year figures compare the same months.

Both chains have an autumn high in card spending. Starbucks peaks in September, 9% above its average month, and stays high through November. January is its low, 8% below average. Dunkin' is flatter. It peaks in October, 6% above average, and December is its weakest month, 7% below. Tim Hortons, the outlying gray line, peaks in summer in this U.S. panel.

Both chains have an autumn high; December is Dunkin's weakest month

Each chain's share of card spending in each calendar month, as a percentage above or below its average month, 2022 to 2025. Gray lines are other coffee and breakfast chains.

Source: ConsumerEdge card panel, monthly share of all tracked-brand spending, so panel growth and overall holiday spending cancel out. Starbucks includes card and app reloads.

Where the stores are

About 53% of Dunkin' stores in the data are in the nine Northeast states, against 13% of Starbucks stores. Dunkin' has more stores than Starbucks in all nine, plus Delaware and Maryland, and fewer everywhere else. Seven states in the data (Alaska, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota and Washington) have no Dunkin' at all.

Half of Dunkin's stores are in the Northeast; Starbucks is everywhere

Each state's stores of the two chains, split between them, August 2025 to July 2026. States in bold are the nine Northeast states. States with fewer than 10 stores in total are left out.

Source: Advan points of interest with visits.

Customers cross between the chains. In July 2025, 32% of Dunkin's 2.1 million panel card customers also bought at Starbucks that month, and 23% of Starbucks' 1.7 million bought at Dunkin'. Across the year the shares ranged from 30% to 34% one way and from 21% to 24% the other. Each chain is the other's top coffee rival in these lists, and McDonald's, Walmart and Target head both. The lists are truncated to each store's top brands, so these are minimum overlaps.

A third of Dunkin's card customers also buy at Starbucks in the same month

Share of each chain's card customers who also bought at the other chain in the same month, monthly, October 2024 to September 2025.

Source: SafeGraph Spend Patterns cross-shopping lists (card panel). Lists are truncated to each store's top brands, so shares are lower bounds.

When a rival opens next door

When a new Starbucks opened within a kilometre of a Dunkin', Dunkin's visits didn't measurably change over the next year, across 224 openings. Starbucks shrugged off new Dunkin' and Dutch Bros stores too. The rival it did notice was 7 Brew, the drive-thru chain: about 3% fewer visits nearby, though part of that dip may have started earlier.

Dunkin' didn't notice Starbucks, and Starbucks noticed only 7 Brew

Change in the existing store's visits in the 12 months after a rival opened within 1 km, against the same chain's stores 20 to 40 km away. Gray: the range when each opening is moved to a random fake location.

Source: Advan store visits, January 2023 to July 2026; openings are stores seen for the first time. This is an association, not proof: chains choose where to open. Dunkin' near Starbucks: only 33 openings, and Starbucks traffic was already rising beforehand. 7 Brew: moving openings a year earlier still shows −1.6%.

Who goes

The customer divide is smaller than the difference in schedules. The two chains' spending profiles move together, with a correlation of 0.89 across 28 demographic groups in every year since 2022. Households earning more than $150,000 account for 33% of Starbucks' tracked spending and 29% of Dunkin's. Starbucks takes a little more from people under 35 (32% against 30%), and Dunkin' more from people over 55 (25% against 22%). These are shares of spending, not counts of customers.

Against 294 big brands, the two crowds look alike; Starbucks tilts a little younger and richer

Share of each brand's card spending from each age group and from the lowest and highest income groups, 12 months to Aug. 9, 2026. Gray dots are the 294 largest card-spend brands.

Source: ConsumerEdge card panel. Demographics are modelled; unknowns are excluded; groups of at least 30 people. Starbucks includes card and app reloads.

Where visitors live points the same way. Starbucks visitors come from neighborhoods with more high earners: 11.9% of residents are in the top income bands, against 9.9% for Dunkin'. That gap survives within counties. Among visitors living in the same county, Starbucks' neighborhoods are richer in 63% of 2,215 counties.

Other national gaps do not survive. Dunkin' visitors' neighborhoods have more residents flagged Republican, 14.1% against 10.9%, and Starbucks' have more millennials and more people living in multi-family housing. Inside the same county, each of these comes close to an even split, between 49% and 53%. They follow where the stores are more than who each chain draws locally.

Starbucks visitors come from somewhat better-off neighborhoods, even within the same county

Make-up of the census block groups that each chain's visitors come from, weighted by visitors. The gray tick is all U.S. residents. The right-hand column compares the two chains' visitors who live in the same county; bold means the gap survives there.

Source: Advan visitor home block groups (sampled weeks, 2023 methodology era) joined to Consumer Profiles (block groups with at least 50 people). These describe neighborhoods, not the shoppers themselves; party is a modelled flag.

Phones seen at the two chains differ more. Of devices seen at Dunkin', 35% are iPhones, against 47% at Starbucks and 55% across all U.S. places. Starbucks ranks above three-quarters of chains; Dunkin' is in the lower 40%. Dunkin's iPhone share is lower in 39 of 42 states, at about three-quarters of the Starbucks share state for state.

Phones seen at Dunkin' are far less likely to be iPhones, even within the same state

iPhone share of devices seen at each chain, August 2025 to July 2026, every chain with at least 100 stores. Gray bars count chains; the dashed line is all U.S. places.

Source: Advan Weekly Patterns device type, 2023 methodology era, same-month shares. This describes phones seen at the stores, not their owners.

The data leave room for both chains in the same person's week. What separates them most clearly is timing: Dunkin's weekday mornings and Starbucks' longer day and busier weekends.

How this analysis was done

Visits, timing, visit length, store counts and phones are from Advan Weekly Patterns, phone-location visit estimates obtained through Dewey, using only data from the 2023 methodology era, through July 2026. The last 12 months are August 2025 to July 2026. Hourly shares come from one sampled week per month, and a visit counts in every hour it overlaps. Same-state comparisons use the 42 states with at least five stores of each chain. Neighborhood make-up joins Advan visitors' home block groups to Consumer Profiles estimates for block groups with at least 50 people.

Store-level card purchases, purchase frequency, average transaction and cross-shopping are from SafeGraph Spend Patterns (via Dewey), October 2024 to September 2025. Months after September 2025 are excluded because the panel changes in October 2025. Annual purchases, spending shares, seasons and demographics are from ConsumerEdge's brand and demographic card panel (via Dewey), May 2021 to August 2026. Starbucks café purchases (STARBUCKS (MERCHANT)) and card and app reloads (STARBUCKS CARD) are tracked separately. Per-shopper figures use café purchases only; spending shares, seasons and demographics count both.

Rival openings use a stacked event study on Advan monthly store visits, January 2023 to July 2026. Each opening is compared with the same incumbent chain's stores 20 to 40 km away over the same months, and each store with its own year before. Relocations, and openings where the incumbent also opened nearby, are dropped. Intervals come from 1,000 bootstrap draws over openings. Three checks: flat trends before the opening, 100 fake locations, and fake dates a year earlier. Pairs need at least 30 openings.

The panels are samples, so levels are estimates; the comparisons between the chains are the finding. No source shares a person, card or phone with another. Card purchases count charges on bank cards, so purchases paid from a preloaded Starbucks balance are not captured as separate transactions. The analysis shows patterns, not causes.